The greening of urban and regional transport is delayed due to the corona outbreak. Because it is uncertain whether and when travelers will return, carriers will not tender for new tenders in which the main role is reserved for the electric bus.
Since the first lockdown in March of this year, a large number of people make less or no use of public transport. City and regional transport is also noticing this: the number of passengers is still only half of what they transported around this time last year.
Because carriers do not dare to risk expensive tenders in the face of declining revenues, provinces are left with new concessions. This is the conclusion of ING’s economic bureau. The decline in ticket revenues and uncertainty about future passenger numbers have led to the extension of expiring concessions in 2020, 2021 and 2022. This includes the regions IJssel-Vecht, Zaanstreek-Waterland and Arnhem-Nijmegen.
The basic principle of all tenders is the replacement of all diesel buses by buses that run on electricity. That goal must be achieved by 2030 and has been agreed by the national government, provinces, major cities and transporters. The Netherlands is at the forefront of the electrification of city and regional buses. At the beginning of this year, 15 percent of the 5,300 buses in public transport were running on a battery. Across Europe this was estimated to be around 4-5 percent.
“Tough Challenge”
Because a number of concessions had already started before the corona virus struck, new e-buses were put into use this year. Their share will probably be 22 percent by the end of this year, according to the ING researchers. But the influx of new buses in the next two years will be slowed.
Not everyone is put off by the financial risks. Last week it was announced that the Rotterdam transport company RET has ordered between 35 and 50 new electric buses and associated charging infrastructure.
“We are temporarily facing significant challenges due to the corona crisis, but in the longer term there is a major role for public transport in our region,” said Maurice Unck, general manager. “The population continues to grow, the pressure on space is increasing and the need to offer clean transport is unchanged.” The new buses should start operating at the end of next year.
Future certainty
“What is striking is that the regions that have transport in their own hands through an affiliated public transport company, such as Amsterdam and Rotterdam, want to continue to invest,” says ING researcher Rico Luman. “In most regions, however, transport is completely privatized and things are different there. Public transport companies have too little comfort to participate in tenders under the existing conditions. ”
Investments in more expensive electric buses and charging stations require a considerable degree of future security if public transport companies have to pay for this out of pocket, Luman said. Due to the corona crisis, the state now pays an availability fee until the middle of next year, but it only covers 93 percent of the losses.
Luman: In order to maintain the upward trend in electrification, additional support for investing public transport companies seems inevitable. Due to its role as contracting party, this is primarily up to the local authorities. ”
