ABN Amro: house prices up first, fall 2021

This year house prices go up by 6 per cent, but in 2021 they will fall by 2 percent. That prediction do economists of ABN Amro, Rabobank after the nation’s largest provider of mortgage loans.

First time this year. So there are rising prices and despite the corona measures an unexpectedly high number of transactions – so far 89 thousand, 4,500 more than in the first five months of last year. That is because the interest rate, which has remained low due to intervention by the central banks, says ABN Amro. And by “persistent housing shortage.

“Apparently buyers saw an opportunity to strike for no rivals in the field,” thinks ABN Amro economist Philip Bokeloh. He thinks perhaps played a role that future homeowners were in a hurry, because they thought the mortgage by the coronoacrisis would rise considerably.

But 2020 will be the year of almost unprecedented economic contraction and rising unemployment. Businesses and families can reduce their spending according to Bokeloh to absorb financial setbacks. The risk of a second wave of infections plays.

The effect on house prices will be visible ‘inevitable’ next year. How? With a fall in house prices of 2 percent and a smaller number of transactions. Taken throughout 2020 to 5 percent next year, ABN Amro predicts that 10 percent fewer houses changing hands.

The bank says the first signals to see a turnaround in the housing market. Thus, the number increased of homes for sale. Economic uncertainty homeowners want more than ever to sell their home before they buy a new one. Also to avoid double housing.

The economists conclude that ABN Amro in Amsterdam signal function for the Dutch housing market works both ways. With the market recovery of the past few years was the capital of anything. Now the market weakens, this is probably as ABN Amro, but in reverse. Before the lockdown was the rise in prices in the capital for some time, after all below the national average.

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